SEO forecast calculator

How the forecast works

Every keyword gets the same arithmetic, done twice — once at its current position, once at its target:

monthly clicks = monthly search volume
               × CTR at that position
               × (1 − AI Overview loss, if one shows)

The forecast is the difference between the two totals, and it does not arrive at once. As in the ROI calculator, the change follows an S-curve: nothing for the first months, then a build that flattens once targets are reached. Positions between two slots are interpolated, and anything below position 10 counts as no clicks.

The CTR curve is the assumption that matters

Published CTR curves disagree with each other by wide margins, because they average very different results pages: brand and non-brand, shopping and informational, one country and another. The default here is First Page Sage’s meta-analysis, which puts position 1 at 39.8% and position 10 at 1.6%. Treat it as a starting point.

Your own curve is better. Export the Queries table from Search Console’s Performance report and paste it in: the calculator groups your queries by rounded position and divides clicks by impressions for each slot, using your numbers wherever a slot has at least 200 impressions. Branded queries inflate the top positions, so filter them out of the export first if you can.

For a multi-market site, build the curve from the market you are forecasting. CTR in a country where AI Overviews appear on many queries is not CTR in one where they appear on few.

AI Overviews take their share first

Ahrefs compared 300,000 keywords and found that an AI Overview correlates with a 58% lower click-through rate for the page in position 1, in December 2025 data. The calculator applies that loss to every keyword marked as showing an AI Overview — or to all of them, if you do not know which do. The figure is editable because the study measured position 1, and because the effect varies by market and query type.

To find which of your keywords show one, most keyword tools export a SERP features column; paste it in as the AIO column and anything mentioning an AI Overview counts. To see a market’s results yourself, the local SERP checker opens them for each country.

What this forecast leaves out

• Long-tail keywords. A page that ranks for its head term usually earns clicks from dozens of variants the list does not include. Forecasts from a keyword list run low for that reason.
• Seasonality. Volumes are monthly averages. A seasonal category needs its peak months read separately.
• Other SERP features. Shopping results, local packs and video carousels all move clicks. The loss field can stand in for them on keywords you know are crowded.
• Whether the target is realistic. Position 3 for a keyword where every result has a hundred times your authority is not a forecast, it is a wish. Check who ranks before you set targets.

Sources

• First Page Sage, Google click-through rates by ranking position, updated May 2025.
• Ryan Law, Update: AI Overviews reduce clicks by 58%, Ahrefs, 4 February 2026.
• Search Console Help, Performance report (Search results).

Questions